Goals, goals, goals….as football consumers we just can’t get enough of them. Nil-nil draws are treated with the utmost disdain, while 4-3 thrillers are consigned to the classics file even if the defending on show is appalling. Putting the ball in the onion bag is the only currency that counts in the beautiful game.
The Top Goalscorer betting market offers some outstanding value, and with each way terms generally set at four places with 1/4 odds, finding some longer-price contenders can also yield substantial profit.
So who should you be looking out for in 2016/17?
The Main Men
When discussing the top goalscorer candidates the smartest place to start is by looking at the profiles of the players that did the business in the preceding campaign; for us, this means Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Sergio Aguero and Romelu Lukaku.
Harry Kane – 25 goals, 3368 mins played
The Tottenham frontman netted a goal every 135 minutes played on average, with 60% of his shots on target (75 of 124).
Jamie Vardy – 24 goals, 3139 mins played
Leicester’s answer to Albert Steptoe scored every 131 minutes on average, with 57% of his total shots ending up on target (53 of 93).
Sergio Aguero – 24 goals, 2373 mins played
The Argentine averaged a goal every 99 minutes for Manchester City last season, with a 56% shots on target success rate (52 of 93).
Romelu Lukaku – 18 goals, 3174 mins played
A goal every 176 minutes on average was what Romelu Lukaku contributed to Everton’s cause, with a 56% accuracy rate for his shooting (48 of 86).
What do these numbers tell us? Well, clearly Sergio Aguero would be the Premier League’s top goalscorer if he had more game time. He is simply too injury prone to achieve his full potential, and the injury types he suffers – typically muscle strains – suggest that his time spent on the treatment table will continue at a similar rate this term. At 7/2, he is too short to be taken seriously in this market.
Harry Kane’s goal ratio is so high simply because he has more shots than anybody else: he had 31 more than both Aguero and Vardy last season, but only netted one more goal than that pair. The conclusion we can draw from that is unclear, but he’s either what we might call a ‘greedy’ player or that Spurs create more shooting opportunities than Leicester or Man City. He scored 21 Premier League goals in 2014/15 remember, so this appears to be his natural level. At 7/1 with bet365, he offers the most value at the top end of the market.
What can we say about Vardy other than he enjoyed an astonishing campaign as part of Leicester’s unbelievable assault on the division’s fat cats. His stats are strong, and it turns out that he is just as efficient in front of goal as Aguero in terms of shots on target, and don’t forget he scored eleven goals in as many games at one point so his overall strike rate has been skewed accordingly. With the Foxes likely to regress back to their mean this term, expect Vardy’s goal return to shrink as a consequence.
And finally Lukaku, who had less shots at goal than Aguero despite playing some 801 more minutes than him last season. Why? Simply because Everton didn’t create enough openings for the big Belgian, and if he stays at the Toffees then we simply can’t give his Golden Boot claims any credence.
Other Contenders
The summer transfer window brings its fair share of ins and outs and none captured the imagination quite as much as Zlatan Ibrahimović’s move to Manchester United. The Swedish ace boasts an incredible career goal-to-game ratio of one in every 1.7 outings, and lining up alongside Henrikh Mkhitaryan – he of 32 assists in 2015/16 – Zlatan will be expected to find the net plenty more times. But at the age of 34, will he have enough time on the pitch to seriously trouble the Golden Boot award? He may go close, but we cannot back him with any confidence.
Chelsea have brought in Antonio Conte as their new manager, and the former Italy boss is known for his rather pragmatic approach compared to, say, Jose Mourinho. Nevertheless, he has been trialling a variation of a 4-2-4 formation in his side’s pre-season friendlies, and that kind of attacking intent is of interest to us.
Diego Costa was largely disinterested with life at Stamford Bridge under Mourinho, and so his seasonal stats can be treated with caution. But what we do know is that when the Spaniard is happy and feels valued he does the business: notching 20 in 27 in 2014/15 and 5 in 10 under Guus Hiddink at the end of the last campaign. With Michy Batshuayi signed to do his running, Costa can stay central and do what he does best. At 20/1 with Coral, he looks a decent investment IF he stays at the club. It might be waiting for the transfer window to slam shut before piling in.
Finally, Liverpool’s attempted resurgence under Jurgen Klopp has had its up and downs, but one thing the German has overseen is an improvement in his side’s goal threat. For the period November ’15 to May ’16, the Reds scored 44 goals in 24 Premier League games at 1.74 apiece; netting in each of their last eleven. That naturally gets our juices flowing, and while we might expect Daniel Sturridge to be the main recipient of such creative force his injury record means he’s a punter’s nightmare.
Instead, take a look at Roberto Firmino, who netted ten Premier League goals last term at 198 minutes per strike; more effective than Costa, Anthony Martial and Odion Ighalo, amongst others. If Firmino is given plenty of game time in the ‘false nine’ role – a likelihood if/when Sturridge gets injured, he will surely flourish, as his return of five goals in ten games at the end of last season testifies.
Recommended Bets
Harry Kane (7/1 with bet365)
Diego Costa (20/1 each way with Coral)
Roberto Firmino (80/1 each way with bet365)
