The quarter-final stage of any tournament is where things start to get a little spicy: the wheat has been separated from the chaff, the men from the boys, and the genuine contenders from the also rans.
Glossing over the England debacle for a moment, punters have been left with eight teams who, while varying in style and substance, all have genuine claims to make the semi-finals of the tournament at least.
Here are some betting tips for each of the quarter-final matches based on what we have seen so far.
Poland vs Portugal Preview
Portugal have made something of a habit of going deep into major tournaments despite some awful displays, as anybody who sat through their matches at the World Cup ’06 or Euro 2012 will testify.
But they have big tournament experience having reached the semis of those two tournaments mentioned, and of course they boast the ‘Ronaldo Factor’. The Real Madrid man may have largely forgotten his shooting boots so far in the competition, but generally the world’s best players come good during the big occasion….and they don’t come much bigger than this.
Poland have progressed to the last eight without their talisman, Robert Lewandowski, registering a single goal; that bodes well. They have only conceded once in the tournament too, and that was an outrageous overhead kick against Switzerland, so don’t expect this encounter to be a high scoring affair.
You would expect Portugal’s greater experience on the big stage to be definitive – just – and at 13/10 with Paddy Power they are just about worth backing. For fans of risky value, the Under 1.5 Goal bracket at 7/5 with Betfair will no doubt be a temptation.
Belgium vs Wales Preview
One side who many punters expected to make the last eight will clash with one that most of us resolutely did not make it this far in Friday’s second quarter-final. Belgium have long been tipped as dark horses for this tournament – with a front three of Eden Hazard, Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku how could they not – and after a slow start against Italy they are finally coming up to the boil in this competition.
It’s perhaps fair to say that Wales are an unexpected quarter finalist, but when you think about it they have done what was expected of them: they defeated Slovakia in their Group B opener, lost to England before – perhaps somewhat surprisingly – beating Russia to top the group following the Three Lions’ inadequacy against the Slovakians. A last 16 win over Northern Ireland was anticipated and yet slightly fortuitous.
This will be the toughest test of Wales’ campaign to date, and so we would expect the Belgians – who are improving with each match – to dominate. At 3/4 with BetVictor, there is enough value to back Hazard and co to get the job done in 90 minutes here.
Germany vs Italy Preview
The undoubted tie of the round sees world champions Germany take on the surprise package Italy – surprising in the sense that they have played so well despite having their weakest squad in some time.
The Italians’ efficiency has been based around defensive solidity; coach Antonio Conte is renowned for his well-drilled and disciplined sides – good news for Chelsea fans – and three of his back four, plus keeper Gigi Buffon, play together week in, week out for Juventus. That makes a huge difference. In attack they are led by a Premier League pairing, Southampton’s Graziano Pelle and Emmanuel Giaccherini, shunted out on loan by Sunderland for not being good enough for English football’s top flight. The mind boggles….
We know all about this Germany side, and since Joachim Low has introduced Mario Gomez as an out-and-out striker – reverting from the False Nine formation he has been deploying beforehand – the Germans have gone up a gear.
But they will need to be on top form to see of this organised Italian outfit, and once again the stats point to a low-scoring game: combined, 88% of these two sides’ eight matches at Euro 2016 have registered less than three goals.
However, if Italy allow Germany time on the ball they can expect to be punished in the way that lacklustre Spain in the last round weren’t quite able to do. Even so, it required a world-class save from Buffon to keep them in the competition, so in terms of playing the percentages the Germany win & under 2.5 goals double at 11/4 with bet365 looks a huge price.
France vs Iceland Preview
Iceland have done incredibly well to progress this far in the tournament, but anybody who followed their progress in qualifying won’t be surprised by the nature of their performances.
Here’s the rub though: they are happy to allow their opponents have the lion’s share of possession – they average just 37% per match – and when playing against a flaccid England side, a toothless Portugal and an outclassed Hungary that is an okay strategy. But to allow France so much time on the ball here, a side including the creative talents of Dimitri Payet, Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann and others, would be catastrophic.
Also, the Icelanders have named an unchanged team in each of their four matches to date; so expect fatigue to be a factor here. High pressure matches require huge reserves of energy, as does defending stoutly for 90 minutes at a time.
Unfortunately this appears to be the end of the road for the plucky Nordicans: backing France with a -1 handicap at 5/4 with Coral is the smart play here.
Recommended Bets
Portugal at 13/10 with PaddyPower
Belgium at 3/4 with BetVictor
Germany win & under 2.5 goals double at 11/4 with bet365
France with a -1 handicap at 5/4 with Coral
