If European Championship history tells us anything, it’s that strikers who turn out for teams who go far in the competition tend to enjoy themselves. That is common sense of course, but the stats confirm this phenomenon.
Michel Platini in 1984 was the only Golden Boot winner not to play up front; since then the likes of Marco van Basten, Dennis Bergkamp, Alan Shearer, Patrick Kluivert, Milan Baros, David Villa and Fernando Torres have all ended the tournament as the leading marksmen. And as you can probably tell from their respective nationalities, these are the frontmen of sides that went deep into proceedings; yes, even England in 1996 made it to the last four!
So we have a nice statistical betting angle in when considering the winner of the Golden Boot trophy at Euro 2016. Here are four betting tips worthy of consideration:
Thomas Muller (Germany)
As an attacker that bagged nine goals in ten games during Euro 2016 qualifying, ten goals in the last two World Cups and 31 in 48 matches for Bayern Munich during the 2015/16 campaign, we can rely on Muller to come up with the goods.
His Germany side should go nicely in the tournament despite some inconsistent recent performances, and so Muller should be top of your list of top goalscorer candidates at an agreeable 8/1 with BetVictor.
What we like most about Muller is that even if he is shunted into a wide right position to accommodate Mario Gomez, he still has an unerring eye for goal which is reflected in his goal-den antics for Bayern playing on the wing in a Robert Lewandowski-led frontline.
Antoine Griezmann (France)
It’s easy to make a case for Griezmann given that he has scored against Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich this season, amongst many others, but the problem he has at international level is that Didier Deschamps, the France coach, prefers to play a ‘big man’ in the central role.
That means that Olivier Giroud is likely to get the nod for Les Bleus, with Griezmann resorting to a wide role to accommodate the powerful Arsenal striker. Thus, his goalscoring opportunities will be limited.
You would argue then that a best price of 10/1 with Betway looks a tad short; even considering his outstanding goalscoring record at domestic level this term.
Harry Kane (England)
This may come as a result of patriotic ‘optimism bias’, but you would fancy given his exploits in front of goal for Spurs this season – and the fact that England have the potential to reach the last eight at the very least – Kane should come into the reckoning.
This is an opinion rather than fact, but we fancy that Roy Hodgson will stick with Kane as a lone striker, the role he excels in, and either stick Jamie Vardy on the left wing or jettison him from the starting eleven all together. That will result in ample goalscoring opportunities for the big man in what is an agreeable group phase.
There will be plenty of UK-based takers of the 16/1 available at William Hill, that’s for sure.
Nolito (Spain)
He might not be the biggest household name in Europe, but Spain’s Manuel Agudo Nolito – or just plain old Nolito to his chums – stands a great chance of clinching the Golden Boot honours at Euro 2016.
He is likely to start up front for a Spanish outfit – he has notched four goals in their last two friendlies – which we assume will go far in the tournament; if they win their group, they will progress to the easier left-hand side of the draw.
Nolito will play in an advanced role on the left flank as Spain look to adopt the ‘false nine’ formation that took them to glory at Euro 2012, and with 16 goals in 33 appearances for Celta Vigo this season he is clearly a player who likes to make things happen in the final third of the pitch. The 35/1 quoted by 888sport about him in this market is more than fair.
