There’s no point banging on about the seeding system or design of the Euro 2016 draw, but how and why France and Germany – the two pre-eminent teams in the competition – are meeting in the semi-final, rather than a potential final clash, remains something of a mystery. Reigning champions Spain were seeded first ahead of World Cup winners Germany….how does that make sense?
Anyway, enough about that. What we have got on our hands is a semi-final encounter that could well be a match for the ages.
We’ve written at length about France’s penchant for winning trophies on home soil, and that in itself gives them the edge. Indeed, they just about shade favouritism ahead of the Germans with the bookmakers, and that is indicative of their quality.
However, if football were a simple game then surely Germany would be the team to back. They, after all, have kept clean sheets in four of their five matches, while the French have conceded in three of their five. By a matter of basic mathematics, the Germans should thus be favourites.
But all of that will count for nothing at the Stade Velodrome in Marseille on Thursday when 90 minutes – maybe more – will separate one of these teams from a shot at greatness.
Match Betting
Some punters bet on instinct and on what they can see; others rely on stats and historical data to guide them.
Those in the former camp will have noted the fluid attacking play of the French trio Pogba, Griezmann and Payet in their 5-2 romp over Iceland, while Arsenal fans will barely recognise the all-action stylings of a seemingly revitalised Olivier Giroud. Add in the metronomic midfield play of Blaise Matuidi and N’Golo Kante, and most would assume that France will have ample opportunities to create the chances required to win this game.
Those numbers that are guided by numbers will probably know already that in the four games between these two sides in big tournaments Germany have won the last three, including a surprisingly one-sided (if not represented by the scoreline) 1-0 win over Les Bleus at the World Cup two years ago.
So which camp do you find yourself in? Well, for what it’s worth, it is possible that France’s defensive fragility could be the defining factor in this match. Adil Rami will come back in for the nervy Samuel Umtitti – he missed the Iceland match through suspension, but it is on the flanks where Thomas Muller and Mesut Ozil will surely believe they can gain the upper hand on their markers Patrice Evra and Bacary Sagna.
The Germans will miss Sami Khedira of course, who limped off after just 12 minutes of their quarter final match with Italy, but Joachim Low will strengthen the middle of the park with both Bastian Schweinsteiger and the uber-talented Joshua Kimmich, so little will be lost in the way of stability there.
You can find 2/1 available on a German win inside 90 minutes at bet365, and that is tempting in itself. But the 10/11 with Betfred on them to win at any time is perhaps the sensible move here.
Other Betting Tips
The probable change in shape from Joachim Low means that Schweinsteiger, Kimmich and Toni Kroos will hold their position in the middle of the park, with Muller staying wide right and Ozil drifting inside from the left flank.
The upshot of that is that the Germans will have plenty of the ball in wide areas, and the France defence has been wanting at times when defending crosses into the box in this tournament. Consequently, Mario Gomez will look to prosper – this old-fashioned centre forward is a powerhouse in the air – so a small wager on Gomez to find the net anytime at 7/2 with Betfred looks logical.
