It has been dubbed the ‘richest game of football on earth’, and when you consider that the winner will receive a cool £170 million in TV rights and licensing deals from the Premier League next season, you get a sense of scale as to the pressure facing Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday when they meet at Wembley on Saturday.
The difference between visiting Old Trafford and visiting Burton Albion’s Pirelli Stadium next season is stark obviously, and yet 90 minutes is all that separates those two trips. Naturally then, the team that handles the pressure better will surely prevail.
But you can make a case for either side on that score. Sheffield Wednesday are the underdogs here having snuck into the play-offs, and against more prestigious opponents they will be expected to go into the game with a carefree, devil-may-care attitude. But with 40,000 Owls fanatics cheering their side on, knowing that Premier League football is within their grasp for the first time since the year 2000. No pressure? Don’t believe a word of it.
Then you look at this Hull City side, and you see a squad of players packed with big game experience. Most of them have played Premier League football and know what is at stake, while the likes of Michael Dawson and Jake Livermore have represented England and former club Spurs in Europe. They should be able to handle the big occasion.
Match Betting
You would think that the two teams’ form heading into the final would be paramount, and the stat that in three of the last five play-offs it is the team that finished third in the league phase that ultimately got promoted would support that. Hull, with five wins in seven, are certainly in the groove’ Sheffield Wednesday, with just two wins in their last eight, less so.
But stranger things have happened, and the fact that the Owls defeated the red-hot Brighton in the semi-finals offers hope. Sure, the Seagulls were missing many of their key players through injury and suspension, but most onlookers would agree that Wednesday were good value for their win.
Head-to-head stats feel less relevant – beaten semi-finalists Derby have defeated Hull in three of their four meetings this season, so that notion is clearly irrelevant – and instead we will return to the psychology factor. Big Wembley occasions can get the better of even the most experience of players, and this young Wednesday side will have never experienced like the atmosphere they will on Saturday. If they can play without fear then great, they’ve got a chance. But the jury is still out on that….
Four of the last five Championship play-off matches have been settled inside 90 minutes, which suggests that we won’t need to worry about a draw scuppering our bets, and as such we’re happy to take the 13/10 offered by Coral on Hull to win in regular time.
Only one of the last four Championship play-off finals has witnessed more than 2.5 goals – a reflection of the tight and nervy fare on offer, and so if history dictates there is a 75% chance that this match will follow suit then we must back the Under 2.5 Goal mark at 5/8 with Marathon Bet.
