It is the first half of the double-header at Newmarket this weekend, and the 2000 Guineas is a fantastic curtain-raiser for what should be an outstanding Bank Holiday meeting.
There have been bits and pieces of rain (and snow!) around this week which may have softened the Rowley Mile track, but a bout of sunshine in the next 24 hours will ensure the course is in fine order.
As punters we are generally adverse to odds-on hopes with the bookies, but in truth it is pretty hard to oppose the chances of the current favourite, Air Force Blue, at the head of the market.
This renewal’s most decorated team is that of trainer Aiden O’Brien and owner Sue Magnier, who have triumphed together on seven occasions, including that powerhouse performance of Gleneagles back in 2015.
So, we can safely say that O’Brien ‘knows his onions’ as far as 2000 Guineas winners are concerned, and he is already on record as describing Air Force Blue as the ‘best two-year-old I have ever trained.’ The colt, who actually turns three on Monday, is held in fine esteem by many in the know.
And no wonder: he’s won four of his five starts – finishing second in the other – and a hugely impressive Grade One victory in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket back in October, under the guidance of Ryan Moore who will take the reins here, was eye-catching to say the least. Given that he has already trounced a number of horses in the field here, including the third favourite Massaat, that price of 4/6 at Coral is fully justified.
Without Air Force Blue
Often when a runner is so highly fancied we have to seek value elsewhere, and that’s why we’ve been keeping close tabs on the ‘Without Air Force Blue’ market in the past week or so.
One of the premier campaigners here, Stormy Antarctic (7/1 outright or 10/3 w/o Air Force Blue), took the honours in the recent Craven Stakes, which is also ran over this Rowley Mile and so often a brilliant precursor to the 2000 Guineas. The Ed Walker trained colt might be worth a look if an overnight deluge softens the deck considerably, as much of his best work has come on yielding turf.
Further down the pecking order is a pair of intriguing picks. Marcel, at 14/1 outright or 6/1 w/o Air Force Blue, is a former Group One winner, and as such should be given plenty of respect. That win came in the prestigious Racing Post Trophy too amongst a decent field and on a soft Doncaster track, which is also worth consideration. Many punters won’t need their arms twisting about this fine horse that has performed admirably in similar conditions.
And finally, don’t be hasty to write off the hopes of Buratino (14/1 outright, 5/1 w/o Air Force Blue at Paddy Power ) either; he is the only horse to ever beat the favourite here in professional competition. The Mark Johnston trained three-year-old is yet to finish outside of the money places in eight starts, although he tends to perform most admirably on quick ground; so keep your eyes peeled to those weather forecasts for the weekend.
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed herein are that of the author and not necessarily those of Hello Punter, and should not be taken as betting advice. No bets are guaranteed, and you may lose more money than you get back. Please gamble responsibly.
