Links golf, eh? You just can’t beat it. Stunning clifftop views, undulating surfaces and 30mph winds threatening to slice your cheekbones in two. It’s no wonder then that The Open Championship, the third major of the calendar year, is the one that all players want to win more than any other.
Getting your hands on that famous Claret Jug is a worthy reward for four days of endeavour at Royal Troon, a course that at first glance appears straightforward enough but when the inclement conditions are factored in – not to mention the pressure associated with the world’s greatest golf tournament – it becomes a devilishly tough assignment.
There are plenty of stories here to whet the appetite of punters and armchair fans alike: can Dustin Johnson claim historic back-to-back major wins, or will he be foiled by one of the other members of the ‘big four’ in Jason Day, Rory McIlroy or Jordan Spieth? Perhaps an English or Scottish concern can claim glory on home soil, or maybe the game’s perennial underachievers at the highest level – a Sergio Garcia, say, or a Henrik Stenson – will be inspired by Johnson’s win at the US Open?
This is Links golf in the rugged Scottish Highlands, so expect wind, rain and all-in-all some hideous conditions to deal with. But, and here’s the exciting part, Troon is the classic ‘in and out’ course, which means that the front nine holes are played in one direction and the back nine in another. The upshot of that is that at some point during the weekend, the strong winds will be at the players’ backs: making par 4s reachable off the tee and par 5s attainable with two good long and accurate strokes. That makes for an exciting spectacle.
The key to winning at Troon – at any Links course or that matter – is arrow-straight hitting. Fairways are littered with the usual obstacles and hazards, and with heavy winds a feature a reliable swing off the peg is essential. But, as discussed, length is critical too in order to attack the tameable holes. Elsewhere, decent GIR stats will be required on the tough holes that require patience and rock-solid ball striking.
The early weather reports for South Ayrshire, and these are ever-changeable of course, indicate that the early starters on Friday are going to experience the worse of the wind and rain. So, the early starters on Thursday – who are usually at an advantage anyway – should enjoy the best of the conditions later on Friday afternoon. We will be selecting our betting picks from this pool of players.
The Open Betting Tips
Rory McIlroy (10/1 with bet365)
When one of the world’s best players rediscovers his best form on the eve of a tournament he has already won in the past, it pays for punters to sit up and take notice.
McIlroy was robbed of his opportunity to defend the Open Championship crown he clinched in 2014 after sustaining an ankle injury in a kick about, so he will be itching to make up for lost time on a track that appears to suit his natural brilliance off the tee.
A number of top-five finishes in recent months were cemented by a win in his native Irish Open, and there is tons of pressure on him to do well in that event from well-meaning supporters so that is indicative of his ability to handle the ‘clutch’ moments that separate the great from the good. The K Club was particularly blustery this year as well, which shows McIlroy’s penchant for playing in a gale.
Ranking eighth on the PGA Tour for Total Driving (a combination of distance and accuracy) and first for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, McIlroy is well equipped to claim the second Claret Jug of his young career.
Branden Grace (33/1 with BetVictor)
There is a feeling on the betting floor that Grace’s ball striking – he favours a kind of low boring, skimming trajectory over getting plenty of hang time – will be to his advantage this week, and a decent run of form in Links golf (he has never missed the cut at an Open Championship) bodes well.
A pair of top-25 finishes at the Scottish Open indicate his suitability for the conditions, and indeed he would have done much better at the weekend at Castle Stuart but for a strangely lacklustre showing on the Saturday. But the manner in which he had slayed the course on Thursday and Friday was a delight to see for his backers here.
Incredibly, the South African has finishes in the top five of nine tournaments in the past year alone, including two victories, and a 20th place finish at the Open Championship last year at St Andrews highlights that Grace is well worthy of your attention at Royal Troon this time around.
The Open Sleeper Picks
Marc Leishman (100/1 with 888sport)
The Aussies have dominated the golfing world in 2016 thus far, and so a guy that has finished in the top five in his last two Open Championship starts must come into consideration; particularly at this kind of price.
Leishman has a very particular style of play, which quite frankly means his form guide is of little relevance, because as we have seen he is electric when playing in gusty, typically British conditions. The US Open in June, which boasts similarities to our very own Open in its Links style golf and coastal locations, witnessed Leishman bag another major top-20 finish – the fifth of his career.
The Aussie won a European Tour event in December, and that is handy too as five of the last six Open Championship victors had won a tournament somewhere in the world in the 12 months prior to their Claret Jug handling.
Chris Wood (100/1 with Coral)
The popular Englishman was very much on our shortlist for the Scottish Open last week, and while he had to pull out of the event at the last minute with a neck injury he has since assured his supporters via Twitter that was simply a precaution, rather than a concern.
The reasons for such support for Wood are that he is bang in form (he won the BMW PGA Championship at the end of May, and has since gone 6-23-11) and simply loves Links golf: at the age of just 28, he has accumulated nine top-20 finishes in relevant tournaments, including top-tens at the Irish Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, plus a fifth and a third at the Open Championship itself.
Few are as efficient from tee to green as this Englishman, so consider him for your betting portfolio this week.
