If you had said to most punters prior to Euro 2016 starting that Wales and Portugal would contest Wednesday’s first semi-final match, more than a few eyebrows would have surely been raised.
But that is exactly the situation that has unfolded, and in Wales’ case at least they are fully deserving of their place in the last four.
If that sounds overly critical of Portugal then so be it: here’s a side that is yet to win any of their five matches in regulation 90 minutes – hardly a recipe for success. But, by hook or by crook, they have got the job done, and given that Cristiano Ronaldo has yet to come to the party it is some achievement.
Wales’ talisman, Gareth Bale, has very much brought the party in France, and his three goals have been central to his side’s progress to the semi-finals. But to call these dragons a one-man team is an absolute falsehood: they have defended like warriors, and in attack Hal Robson-Kanu has been a revelation – as any Reading fan that watched him play last season will testify.
So which of these unexpected semi-finalists can go all the way to Sunday’s showpiece?
Match Betting
The key to this game is perhaps not who is playing but who isn’t. For Wales, Aaron Ramsey and Ben Davies, two experienced campaigners at the highest level who have been key to Wales’ progress, will be missing through suspension, and that means that West Ham veteran James Collins will be tasked with shepherding Ronaldo. That doesn’t bode well for Chris Coleman’s side.
Portugal will be missing their own defensive midfield lynchpin William Carvalho, but his replacement – Joao Moutinho – has been round the block a few times and appeared at Euro 2016 already.
The key to this match will be how Wales play, and how much – emotionally and physically – their win over Belgium took out of them. Their celebrations after the match were a joy to behold, but also had the sense that they had already reached the top of the mountain. Can they rouse themselves for one last effort?
The Portuguese play the game at a canter, and given the amount of times they have played 120 minutes not only in Euro 2016 but n previous tournaments too we don’t have to worry about their conditioning. Their bottle, for want of a better word, in penalty shootouts could also yet come in handy once again.
Backing Portugal is the smart move for punters, and really the hardest decision is in deciding their method of victory: they are 13/10 with William Hill to win in 90 minutes, 4/7 with SkyBet to qualify by any means, 9/1 with William Hill to get the job done in extra time and 9/1 with BetVictor for a dreaded spot-kick shootout.
Given what has gone before though, expect the Portuguese to secure victory in extra time.
Other Betting Tips
Tight and conservative matches often need a moment of brilliance to separate the two teams, and while the media has billed this as some kind of ‘Bale vs Ronaldo’ showdown, most would presume it is the former that will have the greater opportunities to find the net.
With the 1-0 to Portugal scoreline very much a possibility, the 10/3 offered by Coral on Ronaldo to score first looks outstanding value.
