There probably aren’t many punters that would have seen the opening games of Group B pan out as they did, and now we find ourselves in a very interesting situation: a point for Wales here would guarantee their place in the last 16 of the European Championships for the first time in their history. A draw would leave England fans with a particularly nervy clash with Slovakia to endure.
The good news for Three Lions supporters is that their team has a decent record in home internationals and matches against Wales in particular; they have triumphed in 66 of 102 meetings, including six of their last seven against the Welsh Dragons.
But this Wales team is a slightly different beast under Chris Coleman, and knowing that they have one truly world class player (Gareth Bale), one who isn’t far from that standard (Aaron Ramsey) and nine other solid pros, this will not be a simple obstacle for England to overcome.
Match Betting
If you watched England’s match with Russia then you may have drawn your own conclusions as to their performance level, but really the bigger picture is that they were the far better side there and – had they not been so wasteful in possession in the final third – would surely have won with ease. Expect Roy Hodgson to stick with same team (ignoring pleas for Jamie Vardy to replace Raheem Sterling), and as such we can expect a similarly disciplined performance.
Wales were impressive in their 2-1 win over Slovakia, and the key to their showing was their efficiency in front of goal. They may have enjoyed less possession of the ball, but with eight shots on target they could and perhaps should have netted more than twice.
In a unique twist Coleman deployed a ‘false nine’ formation, with Bale the most advanced Wales player with Ramsey in support. But this was a side designed to defend deep and in numbers, and so Hodgson’s men will have the task of breaking them down.
So expect a tight clash here, with neither side giving an inch nor taking too many risks. We know that – prior to Tuesday’s matches – 8/10 at Euro 2016 had gone Under 2.5 Goals, and that pattern is likely to be elongated on Thursday. England should have enough to nick it, but their price of 3/5 simply isn’t tempting enough.
Instead, the 19/29 offered by BetVictor on a Wales +1.25 Asian handicap is far more appealing.
Other Bets
You’ll find 8/11 offered by Betfred on the Under 2.5 Goals, and given what we have seen in this tournament to date – and the fact that the last five England/Wales encounters have gone under the 2.5 mark – that looks unmissable value.
On a similar level, Wales have failed to score in eight of their last twelve meetings with England, and really the Three Lions should have kept a clean sheet against Russia. So there’s value in the 4/6 provided by Ladbrokes on Both Teams to Score (No) too.
