Another major tournament, another series of flaky performances from England. Nobody is surprised, and plenty will be greeting Monday’s last 16 clash with Iceland with a sense of trepidation.
The Icelanders have taken to their first big international competition like ducks to water, and after avoiding defeat in their three group games will surely fancy their chances of springing what would be, according to the bookmakers at least, a huge shock here.
Match Betting
Stats and numbers are becoming increasingly commonplace in the analysis and prediction of football matches, and while these rarely tell the full story they are often worthy of consideration:
England have averaged 57% possession in their three matches so far, won 26 corners and had 56 attempts on goal (on target, off target and blocked). Yet, they have managed just three goals in Euro 2016.
Iceland, meanwhile, have averaged 34% possession, won eight corners and had just 21 attempts on goal. Remarkably, they have scored more goals – four – than Hodgson’s side.
What do these numbers tell us? Well, you don’t need to be a statistician to realise that Iceland are using the ball better than the English. Indeed, you have to be worried, as a Three Lions supporter, that England’s profligacy in front of goal is going to cost them.
Another set of figures are worthy of closer inspection: Iceland have used just eleven players in the tournament to date – England have handed caps to seventeen. Will the Icelanders greater rhythm and familiarity be a factor?
There are stories within the story though, and while the numbers are of relevance we have to take the two teams’ form into perspective. England were unlucky not to beat Russia as a momentary lapse of concentration in defence cost them the three points, Joe Hart should have saved Gareth Bale’s free kick against Wales – making the margin of victory more comfortable, while Hodgson’s reshuffled pack completely dominated Slovakia but simply couldn’t find the finishing touch.
Iceland have been rather charmed thus far in the competition. Portugal laid siege to their goal with ten shots on target and as such probably should have won, they needed a Gylfi Sigurdsson penalty to earn a point against Hungary and only a 94th minute winner got them the three points against a flaccid Austria side. As smart punters we have to seek out the bigger picture.
So expect England to win a very tight affair, although the 4/7 best price from BetVictor isn’t overly alluring. If this match follows the pattern of how England and Iceland have fared so far, then the Three Lions will see a lot of the ball. But can they turn that dominance into goals? They haven’t managed it to date, so backing Iceland with a +1.25 handicap at 8/13 with 888sport looks the smartest investment.
Other Bets
Patterns are a punters’ best friend in major tournaments, and we know that Euro 2016 has been a startling competition for delivering Under 2.5 goal matches. Indeed, only 25% of the third round of group games went over this mark, none of Saturday’s round of 16 encounters did and some 66.6% of England and Iceland’s combined matches in the event have come under the magic bracket.
The evidence is compelling then: this match is likely to be under 2.5 goals too; only the first 90 minutes are relevant to this market, remember. So take the rather stodgy 1/2 on offer from Betfair as a low risk source of income.
A slightly more risky punt, but one that comes with a very nice price attached, is the half time/full time prediction of draw/England. Given our analysis of this game this appears to be the most obvious outcome, and at 3/1 with Paddy Power it looks worthy of your attention.
Recommend Bets
under 2.5 goals at 1/2 with Betfair
half time/full time: draw/England at 3/1 with PaddyPower
Iceland with a +1.25 handicap at 8/13 with 888sport
