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2016 Champions League Final Betting Preview: Real v Atletico

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The great and good from across Europe do battle in the Champions League across nine months worth of blood, sweat and tears….and so it’s pretty ironic that two teams from the same city will duke it out for club football’s greatest prize.

Real Madrid and Atletico will meet at Milan’s San Siro stadium on May 28 for the right to be crowned Europe’s finest and lift that famous Champions League trophy. It has been a long old road for these two contrasting sides, but they’ve got here in the end.

 

Real Madrid Team News

Zinedine’s Zidane side have been rocked by the news that Raphael Varane, their central defensive rock, will miss the final through injury. The French ace has torn his thigh muscle and will also miss Euro 2016 too.

There was further bad news when Cristiano Ronaldo limped out of training, he too with a thigh injury, but the Portuguese ace is expected to make a full recovery in time for Saturday.

The famous whites have enjoyed a rather charmed draw to this point in the competition, with knockout phase matches against the likes of Wolfsburg and Manchester City paling in comparison to Atletico’s route which saw them depose two of the tournament’s favourites in Barcelona and Bayern Munich. But will that easy ride play into Real’s favour?

 

Atletico Madrid Team News

A full bill of health is currently being enjoyed by the Atletico Madrid squad, and so Diego Simeone will be able to call on his full roster of players that has looked so impressive this season.

Not content with knocking out two of the continent’s biggest names on route to this showpiece final, Atletico also finished a close third in La Liga after leading the chasing pack for much of the campaign. To do so on a fraction of the budget of their rivals is testament to Simeone’s powers of motivation, but also the development of the likes of Antoine Griezmann, Koke, Saul Niguez and Angel Correa.

This will be Atletico’s second Champions League final in three years, so those writing them off do so at their peril.

 

Match Betting

The advantage of two Spanish teams reaching the Champions League final is that we have plenty of comparative stats at our disposal. Atletico, for instance, took four points from a possible six against Real this season, and so their standing as 9/4 outsiders with William Hill is something of a surprise. But to pay them their due, Real have an outstanding pedigree in this competition and as such are an understandable 6/4 favourite with SkyBet.

What is perhaps most surprising is Atletico’s dominance over their Madrid neighbours since Simeone took the helm. Of the fifteen meetings between the two, the Argentine’s men have won six and drawn six; an ‘avoid defeat’ ratio of some 80%. By that logic, a Double Chance (3/5, Betway) or Draw No Bet (6/5, BetVictor) wager on Atletico appears the smartest investment.

Of course, another option would be to back Atletico to lift the trophy at 11/10 with Paddy Power. If they are level-pegging after 90 minutes then at least you have hedged your bets somewhat.

 

Other Bets

Another strong trend worthy of further analysis is goals….or a distinct lack o them. We may have come to know Real as machines in front of goal, but when the latter stages of the Champions League come around they tend to be a little more shy.

In the past three seasons, their knockout matches in this competition have yielded both teams to score verdicts in just 27%, with over 2.5 goals in less than half (40%). And that kind of tallies with Atletico’s efforts too, where both teams have scored in 33% of encounters and over 2.5 goals returned in just 27%.

Crucially, only three of the last ten Real vs Atletico contests have gone over the 2.5 mark, so punters will be falling over themselves to take the 4/7 offered by Betfair on Under 2.5 Goals, and those who don’t mind an element of risk will love the 21/20 offered by bet365 on Under 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score (No).

 

 

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